UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hansen vs Aoki

1,858

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
91% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 7.5 More than 30% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.2 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.4 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Joachim Hansen
Better striker 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 6.9 vs 6.1 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hansen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 7:08, how much damage will he do? Aoki Hansen
Significant Strikes14
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Hansen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 64 Significant Strikes in 7:08
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Hansen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:08
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Hansen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Joachim
Hansen
In 7:08, how much damage will he do? Hansen Aoki
Significant Strikes12
Hansen's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 64 Significant Strikes in 7:08
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Hansen's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:08
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hansen is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hansen has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hansen is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Hansen 8.4
Great striking by Hansen
9 strikes May 29, 2011 vs Ishida
12 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Aoki
17 strikes Sep 25, 2005 vs Edwards

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Hansen 8.4
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Hansen 6.9
Great knockouts by Hansen
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Aoki
Round 1 Apr 02, 2006 vs Azeredo
Round 3 Mar 26, 2005 vs Uno

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Hansen 8.2
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Hansen 7.8
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 6, 2009Dream 11
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR1 SUB
1,9842,116
1,9522,148
July 21, 2008Dream 5
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR1 SUB
1,9082,110
1,9842,034
December 31, 2006Pride FC - Shockwave 2006
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,9411,945
1,8911,994
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Hansen
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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