UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Black vs Aoki

1,805

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
93% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.8 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.6 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.0 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.2 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.5 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly younger 34 years vs 45 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Jason Black
Significantly heavier hands 6.8 vs 6.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 7.9 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 169 lbs vs 153 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Black’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 7:18, how much damage will he do? Aoki Black
Significant Strikes15
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Black's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 66 Significant Strikes in 7:18
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Black's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:18
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Black on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jason
Black
In 7:18, how much damage will he do? Black Aoki
Significant Strikes8
Black's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 66 Significant Strikes in 7:18
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Black's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:18
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Black is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Black is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Black is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Black 7.9
Great striking by Black
23 strikes Jun 04, 2006 vs Jin Eoh

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Black 8.0
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Black 6.8
Great knockouts by Black
Round 1 Jun 04, 2006 vs Jin Eoh
Round 2 Nov 23, 2002 vs W. Saunders
Round 2 Aug 11, 2001 vs Cronk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Black 7.8
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Black 8.2
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 26, 2006Pride - Bushido 12
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
R2 SUBX
1,9941,817
1,9211,891
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Black
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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