UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Thompson vs Daley

1,830

CageRank

WINNER
Daley

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
75% chance Daley
WILL WIN

2,017

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Paul Daley
Much heavier hands 9.5 vs 7.3 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 170 lbs vs 169 lbs Almost the same
Younger 34 years vs 36 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Nick Thompson
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.3 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.6 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Daley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thompson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Paul
Daley
In 10:14, how much damage will he do? Daley Thompson
Significant Strikes48
Daley's good striking offense may be a factor against Thompson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 92 Significant Strikes in 10:14
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Daley's below average takedown offense is matched by Thompson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:14
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Daley has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Daley is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Daley is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Thompson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Daley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Thompson
In 10:14, how much damage will he do? Thompson Daley
Significant Strikes31
Thompson's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Daley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 92 Significant Strikes in 10:14
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Thompson's average takedown offense is matched by Daley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:14
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thompson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thompson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Thompson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Daley 8.7
fighter Thompson 7.9
Great striking by Daley
17 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Smith
8 strikes Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
27 strikes Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Daley 7.6
fighter Thompson 8.3
Great takedowns by Thompson
1 takedown Nov 19, 2005 vs Wisniewski

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Daley 9.5
fighter Thompson 7.3
Great knockouts by Daley
Round 1 Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
Round 1 Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann
Round 2 Dec 05, 2008 vs Alessio

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Daley 6.3
fighter Thompson 7.8
Great submissions by Thompson
Round 2 Jun 24, 2006 vs Wilson
Round 2 Oct 15, 2005 vs Neer
Round 2 Sep 24, 2005 vs Moreno

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Daley 8.8
fighter Thompson 7.9
Fast finishes by Daley
144 seconds Jan 02, 2010 vs Hazelett
151 seconds Sep 19, 2009 vs Kampmann
438 seconds Dec 05, 2008 vs Alessio
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 20, 2009MFC 20
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 SUBX
2,0591,973
2,0971,935
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Daley
legend Thompson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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