UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rothwell vs Velasquez

1,950

CageRank

WINNER
Velasquez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
83% chance Velasquez
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.5 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 10.0 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 8.5 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Ben Rothwell
Significantly heavier 262 lbs vs 241 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
A lot taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 204 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.7 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rothwell’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 10:09, how much damage will he do? Velasquez Rothwell
Significant Strikes77
Velasquez's excellent striking offense will dominate Rothwell's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:09
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rothwell's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:09
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rothwell on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ben
Rothwell
In 10:09, how much damage will he do? Rothwell Velasquez
Significant Strikes26
Rothwell's good striking offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:09
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rothwell's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:09
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rothwell has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rothwell is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rothwell is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Rothwell 8.7
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Velasquez 9.2
fighter Rothwell 7.5
Great takedowns by Velasquez
2 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
11 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
5 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Rothwell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter Rothwell 8.5
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Velasquez 6.7
fighter Rothwell 7.2
Great submissions by Rothwell
Round 2 May 19, 2007 vs Fulton
Round 1 Oct 04, 2002 vs Fulton
Round 1 Feb 16, 2002 vs Schall

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Velasquez 9.4
fighter Rothwell 8.4
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 24, 2009UFC 104
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
R2 KOX
2,0391,875
1,9671,947
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Velasquez
legend Rothwell
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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