UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rothwell vs Nelson

1,950

CageRank

WINNER
Nelson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
56% chance Nelson
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Roy Nelson
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 9.4 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Ben Rothwell
Much longer reach 204 cm vs 185 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 262 lbs vs 248 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 35 years vs 40 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.7 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rothwell’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roy
Nelson
In 10:45, how much damage will he do? Nelson Rothwell
Significant Strikes48
Nelson's average striking offense is matched by Rothwell's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:45
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rothwell's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:45
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rothwell on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ben
Rothwell
In 10:45, how much damage will he do? Rothwell Nelson
Significant Strikes63
Rothwell's good striking offense may be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:45
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rothwell's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:45
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rothwell has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rothwell is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rothwell is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nelson 8.4
fighter Rothwell 8.7
Great striking by Rothwell
8 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Schaub
44 strikes Jun 12, 2010 vs Yvel
16 strikes Sep 20, 2007 vs Rodriguez

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nelson 7.6
fighter Rothwell 7.5
Great takedowns by Nelson
2 takedowns Oct 29, 2011 vs Filipovic
1 takedown Dec 05, 2009 vs Schaub

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nelson 9.4
fighter Rothwell 8.5
Great knockouts by Nelson
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nelson 6.7
fighter Rothwell 7.2
Great submissions by Rothwell
Round 2 May 19, 2007 vs Fulton
Round 1 Oct 04, 2002 vs Fulton
Round 1 Feb 16, 2002 vs Schall

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nelson 9.2
fighter Rothwell 8.4
Fast finishes by Nelson
123 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
51 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Herman
39 seconds Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 7, 2007IFL - Moline
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R2 KOX
1,9511,783
1,9781,755
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nelson
legend Rothwell
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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