UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nakamura vs Ishida

1,864

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nakamura

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Nakamura
WILL WIN

1,833

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Daisuke Nakamura
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.7 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 7.9 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
A lot taller 180 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% taller
Heavier 155 lbs vs 142 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Mitsuhiro Ishida
Much stronger takedown offense 9.5 vs 7.9 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better striker 8.2 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Harder to hit 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Nakamura on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ishida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daisuke
Nakamura
In 11:10, how much damage will he do? Nakamura Ishida
Significant Strikes19
Nakamura's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Ishida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 100 Significant Strikes in 11:10
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nakamura's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ishida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:10
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakamura is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Nakamura has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nakamura is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Ishida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakamura’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mitsuhiro
Ishida
In 11:10, how much damage will he do? Ishida Nakamura
Significant Strikes33
Ishida's average striking offense won't be a factor against Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 100 Significant Strikes in 11:10
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Ishida's excellent takedown offense will dominate Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:10
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ishida is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ishida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ishida has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nakamura 7.7
fighter Ishida 8.2
Great striking by Ishida
16 strikes Mar 08, 2009 vs Nakamura
8 strikes Dec 31, 2007 vs Melendez
29 strikes Jun 04, 2006 vs Aurelio

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nakamura 7.9
fighter Ishida 9.5
Great takedowns by Ishida
5 takedowns Mar 08, 2009 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Dec 31, 2007 vs Melendez
4 takedowns Jun 04, 2006 vs Aurelio

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nakamura 6.7
fighter Ishida 6.7
Great knockouts by Nakamura
Round 1 Oct 30, 2004 vs Hoshino
Round 1 Jul 03, 2004 vs Onose
Round 2 Jun 29, 2003 vs Miyamoto

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nakamura 8.2
fighter Ishida 6.7
Great submissions by Nakamura
Round 3 Oct 29, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Tokoro
Round 1 Aug 26, 2006 vs Ikemoto

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nakamura 7.9
fighter Ishida 7.3
Fast finishes by Nakamura
220 seconds Aug 27, 2010 vs Bradney
143 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Tokoro
216 seconds Aug 26, 2006 vs Ikemoto
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 8, 2009Dream 7
team
VS
team
XR2 DEC
XDEC
1,9221,972
1,8792,015
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nakamura
legend Ishida
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus