UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nakamura vs Tokoro

1,864

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Nakamura

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
69% chance Nakamura
WILL WIN

1,723

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Daisuke Nakamura
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 7.7 Around 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.3 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 180 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Fast finishes 7.9 vs 7.5 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier hands 6.7 vs 6.4 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 133 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 38 years vs 40 years 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Hideo Tokoro
Better striker 8.0 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better takedown defense 8.1 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Nakamura on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tokoro’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daisuke
Nakamura
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nakamura Tokoro
Significant Strikes50
Nakamura's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Tokoro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Nakamura's average takedown offense is matched by Tokoro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakamura is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Nakamura has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nakamura is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Tokoro on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakamura’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hideo
Tokoro
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Tokoro Nakamura
Significant Strikes41
Tokoro's average striking offense won't be a factor against Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Tokoro's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tokoro is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tokoro is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tokoro has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nakamura 7.7
fighter Tokoro 8.0
Great striking by Tokoro
21 strikes Jul 16, 2011 vs Imanari
33 strikes May 29, 2011 vs Maeda
21 strikes May 26, 2009 vs Cullum

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nakamura 7.9
fighter Tokoro 7.3
Great takedowns by Nakamura
1 takedown Dec 31, 2008 vs Tokoro
1 takedown Aug 26, 2006 vs Ikemoto

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nakamura 6.7
fighter Tokoro 6.4
Great knockouts by Nakamura
Round 1 Oct 30, 2004 vs Hoshino
Round 1 Jul 03, 2004 vs Onose
Round 2 Jun 29, 2003 vs Miyamoto

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nakamura 8.2
fighter Tokoro 7.7
Great submissions by Nakamura
Round 3 Oct 29, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Tokoro
Round 1 Aug 26, 2006 vs Ikemoto

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nakamura 7.9
fighter Tokoro 7.5
Fast finishes by Nakamura
220 seconds Aug 27, 2010 vs Bradney
143 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Tokoro
216 seconds Aug 26, 2006 vs Ikemoto
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
DECX
1,8931,741
1,9221,712
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nakamura
legend Tokoro
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus