UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nakamura vs Nakamura

1,864

CageRank

WINNER
Nakamura

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
56% chance Nakamura
WILL WIN

1,908

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Keita Nakamura
Better striker 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 7.2 vs 6.7 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.9 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.3 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 34 years vs 37 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Daisuke Nakamura
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Nakamura on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakamura’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Keita
Nakamura
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nakamura Nakamura
Significant Strikes53
Nakamura's average striking offense won't be a factor against Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Nakamura's average takedown offense is matched by Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakamura is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nakamura has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nakamura has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nakamura on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakamura’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Daisuke
Nakamura
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nakamura Nakamura
Significant Strikes51
Nakamura's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nakamura's average takedown offense is matched by Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakamura is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nakamura has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nakamura is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nakamura 8.4
fighter Nakamura 7.7
Great striking by Nakamura
47 strikes Sep 23, 2008 vs Martins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nakamura 8.5
fighter Nakamura 7.9
Great takedowns by Nakamura
1 takedown Sep 23, 2008 vs Martins

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nakamura 7.2
fighter Nakamura 6.7
Great knockouts by Nakamura
Round 1 Mar 30, 2012 vs Kim
Round 2 Jun 20, 2010 vs de la Cruz
Round 1 Nov 11, 2007 vs Hanai

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nakamura 8.1
fighter Nakamura 8.2
Great submissions by Nakamura
Round 3 Oct 29, 2011 vs Hyun Kim
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Tokoro
Round 1 Aug 26, 2006 vs Ikemoto

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nakamura 8.4
fighter Nakamura 7.9
Fast finishes by Nakamura
129 seconds Dec 24, 2012 vs Suzuki
210 seconds Oct 30, 2010 vs Wada
118 seconds Apr 29, 2006 vs Jae Jun
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 DEC
XDEC
1,5491,598
1,5061,641
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nakamura
legend Nakamura
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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