UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aoki vs Gomi

2,254

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,012

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 7.2 Around 35% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.5 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.0 More than 40% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.3 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 35 years vs 39 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Takanori Gomi
Better striker 8.9 vs 7.4 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 6.1 Around 40% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gomi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 9:01, how much damage will he do? Aoki Gomi
Significant Strikes21
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Gomi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 9:01
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Gomi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:01
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gomi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Takanori
Gomi
In 9:01, how much damage will he do? Gomi Aoki
Significant Strikes22
Gomi's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 81 Significant Strikes in 9:01
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Gomi's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:01
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gomi has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gomi is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gomi is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Gomi 8.9
Great striking by Gomi
5 strikes Aug 01, 2010 vs Griffin
14 strikes Dec 31, 2006 vs Ishida
35 strikes Sep 25, 2005 vs Kawajiri

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Gomi 7.2
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Gomi 8.4
Great knockouts by Gomi
Round 2 Feb 26, 2012 vs Mitsuoka
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Griffin
Round 1 Dec 31, 2006 vs Ishida

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Gomi 7.0
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Round 1 Aug 26, 2006 vs Black

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Gomi 8.2
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Gomi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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