UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aoki vs Ribeiro

2,254

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
90% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

1,875

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.5 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.0 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.6 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Vitor Ribeiro
Better striker 8.1 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 6.8 vs 6.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ribeiro’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:48, how much damage will he do? Aoki Ribeiro
Significant Strikes21
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Ribeiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:48
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Ribeiro's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:48
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Ribeiro on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vitor
Ribeiro
In 8:48, how much damage will he do? Ribeiro Aoki
Significant Strikes11
Ribeiro's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 79 Significant Strikes in 8:48
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Ribeiro's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:48
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ribeiro is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ribeiro has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ribeiro is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Ribeiro 8.1
Great striking by Ribeiro
9 strikes Apr 05, 2009 vs Nagata

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Ribeiro 8.6
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Ribeiro 6.8
Great knockouts by Ribeiro
Round 1 Apr 05, 2009 vs Nagata
Round 1 Nov 03, 2001 vs Kohler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Ribeiro 8.4
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Ribeiro 8.0
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 20, 2009Dream 10
team
VS
team
R2 DECX
R1 SUBX
2,0732,024
2,1161,981
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Ribeiro
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus