UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aoki vs Kawajiri

2,254

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
69% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,112

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.4 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 180 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.3 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Longer reach 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly heavier 153 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Tatsuya Kawajiri
Much heavier hands 7.5 vs 6.1 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kawajiri’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 9:34, how much damage will he do? Aoki Kawajiri
Significant Strikes10
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:34
Poor
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense is matched by Kawajiri's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:34
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Kawajiri on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tatsuya
Kawajiri
In 9:34, how much damage will he do? Kawajiri Aoki
Significant Strikes12
Kawajiri's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 86 Significant Strikes in 9:34
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Kawajiri's excellent takedown offense is matched by Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:34
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kawajiri has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kawajiri is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Kawajiri 8.0
Great striking by Kawajiri
18 strikes Dec 31, 2010 vs Thomson
17 strikes Dec 31, 2009 vs Yokota
51 strikes May 26, 2009 vs Cavalcante

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Kawajiri 9.2
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Kawajiri 7.5
Great knockouts by Kawajiri
Round 1 Jul 16, 2011 vs Fickett
Round 1 Oct 14, 2006 vs Eklund
Round 2 Dec 14, 2004 vs Ribeiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Kawajiri 8.4
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Kawajiri 8.5
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 10, 2010Dream 15
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XDEC
2,1142,117
2,1642,066
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Kawajiri
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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