UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Ishida vs Matsushita

1,833

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Ishida

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
88% chance Ishida
WILL WIN

1,481

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Mitsuhiro Ishida
Much better submission offense 6.7 vs 5.6 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 7.9 vs 7.0 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 7.3 vs 6.8 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 8.3 vs 7.7 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 38 years vs 41 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Naoki Matsushita
Heavier hands 7.0 vs 6.7 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 153 lbs vs 142 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Ishida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Matsushita’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mitsuhiro
Ishida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Ishida Matsushita
Significant Strikes59
Ishida's average striking offense is matched by Matsushita's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Ishida's excellent takedown offense will dominate Matsushita's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ishida is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Ishida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ishida has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Matsushita on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ishida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Naoki
Matsushita
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Matsushita Ishida
Significant Strikes44
Matsushita's average striking offense won't be a factor against Ishida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Matsushita's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ishida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Matsushita has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Matsushita is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Matsushita is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Ishida 9.5
fighter Matsushita 8.5
Great takedowns by Ishida
5 takedowns Mar 08, 2009 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Dec 31, 2007 vs Melendez
4 takedowns Jun 04, 2006 vs Aurelio

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ishida 6.7
fighter Matsushita 7.0
Great knockouts by Matsushita
Round 2 Sep 27, 2009 vs Andrade I
Round 1 Aug 16, 2009 vs Yong Kim
Round 2 Dec 11, 2005 vs Iida

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ishida 6.7
fighter Matsushita 5.6
Great submissions by Ishida
Round 1 Sep 20, 2008 vs Wilcox
Round 1 Apr 02, 2006 vs Rodriguez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ishida 7.3
fighter Matsushita 6.8
Fast finishes by Ishida
81 seconds Sep 20, 2008 vs Wilcox
149 seconds Apr 02, 2006 vs Rodriguez
691 seconds Aug 20, 2005 vs Nakakura
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XX
DECX
1,6301,622
1,6281,623
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ishida
legend Matsushita
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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