UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Saunders vs Sobotta

1,981

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Saunders

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Saunders
WILL WIN

1,869

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ben Saunders
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 6.7 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
A lot taller 191 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 197 cm vs 191 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Peter Sobotta
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.2 vs 7.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 30 years vs 34 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Saunders on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sobotta’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ben
Saunders
In 12:04, how much damage will he do? Saunders Sobotta
Significant Strikes63
Saunders's average striking offense is matched by Sobotta's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:04
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Saunders's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sobotta's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:04
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Saunders has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Saunders is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Saunders is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Sobotta on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Saunders’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Peter
Sobotta
In 12:04, how much damage will he do? Sobotta Saunders
Significant Strikes36
Sobotta's average striking offense is matched by Saunders's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:04
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sobotta's average takedown offense is matched by Saunders's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:04
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sobotta is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sobotta has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sobotta is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Saunders 8.6
fighter Sobotta 8.1
Great striking by Saunders
22 strikes Nov 21, 2009 vs Davis
42 strikes Dec 10, 2008 vs Wolff
41 strikes Aug 09, 2008 vs Thomas

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Saunders 8.5
fighter Sobotta 6.7
Great knockouts by Saunders
Round 1 Feb 21, 2013 vs Amaya
Round 3 Sep 10, 2011 vs Cisneros
Round 1 Nov 21, 2009 vs Davis

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Saunders 7.5
fighter Sobotta 8.3
Great submissions by Sobotta
Round 1 Nov 10, 2012 vs Dadaev
Round 1 Apr 27, 2012 vs Manuel Suarez
Round 1 Mar 24, 2012 vs Panin

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Saunders 8.4
fighter Sobotta 8.4
Fast finishes by Sobotta
130 seconds Nov 10, 2012 vs Dadaev
138 seconds Apr 27, 2012 vs Manuel Suarez
672 seconds Sep 13, 2008 vs Abzailov
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Saunders
legend Sobotta
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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