UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mello vs Aldo

1,803

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
95% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.7 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.0 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.7 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 31 years vs 42 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 170 cm vs 168 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Fabio Mello
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.6 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mello’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 9:15, how much damage will he do? Aldo Mello
Significant Strikes52
Aldo's good striking offense may be a factor against Mello's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:15
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aldo's average takedown offense is matched by Mello's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:15
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Mello on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fabio
Mello
In 9:15, how much damage will he do? Mello Aldo
Significant Strikes25
Mello's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:15
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mello's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:15
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mello is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mello is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mello is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Mello 8.3
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Mello 6.7
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Mello 7.9
Great submissions by Mello
Round 1 Mar 02, 2012 vs Huber
Round 1 Oct 17, 2009 vs Castaneda
Round 3 Jun 19, 2009 vs Aziz

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Mello 7.7
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 2, 2007TFC 3
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XR2 KO
1,5661,775
1,5431,798
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Mello
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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