UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rua vs Jackson

2,020

CageRank

WINNER
Jackson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
61% chance Jackson
WILL WIN

2,095

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Quinton Jackson
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Harder to hit 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 35 years vs 39 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 8.1 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Jackson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Quinton
Jackson
In 12:34, how much damage will he do? Jackson Rua
Significant Strikes38
Jackson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 113 Significant Strikes in 12:34
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jackson's average takedown offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jackson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jackson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Jackson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jackson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 12:34, how much damage will he do? Rua Jackson
Significant Strikes69
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate Jackson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 113 Significant Strikes in 12:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rua's average takedown offense is matched by Jackson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:34
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jackson 8.6
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jackson 8.1
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Rua
8 takedowns Dec 31, 2006 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Jun 26, 2005 vs Rogerio Nogueira
1 takedown Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jackson 8.6
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jackson 6.6
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Jackson
Round 1 Jun 08, 2003 vs Ilyukhin
Round 1 Sep 29, 2002 vs Vovchanchyn
Round 1 Oct 28, 2000 vs Owsley

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jackson 8.3
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR1 KO
1,8742,020
1,9431,950
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jackson
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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