UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rua vs Belfort

2,020

CageRank

WINNER
Belfort

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
76% chance Belfort
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Vitor Belfort
Fast finishes 10.0 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 10.0 vs 9.3 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.8 vs 9.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.5 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Younger 35 years vs 40 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Slightly taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Belfort on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vitor
Belfort
In 6:24, how much damage will he do? Belfort Rua
Significant Strikes28
Belfort's excellent striking offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:24
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Belfort's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:24
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Belfort has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Belfort is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Belfort is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Belfort’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 6:24, how much damage will he do? Rua Belfort
Significant Strikes23
Rua's excellent striking offense is matched by Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:24
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Belfort's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:24
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Belfort 9.2
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Belfort 7.6
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Rua
8 takedowns Dec 31, 2006 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Jun 26, 2005 vs Rogerio Nogueira
1 takedown Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Belfort
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
Round 2 Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
Round 1 Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Belfort 6.9
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Belfort
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 1 Mar 25, 2001 vs Southworth
Round 1 Dec 21, 1997 vs Charles

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Belfort 10.0
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Belfort
77 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Henderson
387 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Bisping
182 seconds Sep 19, 2009 vs Franklin
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Belfort
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus