UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rua vs Cummins

2,020

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Rua

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
79% chance Rua
WILL WIN

1,787

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.0 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Patrick Cummins
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.5 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cummins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 6:06, how much damage will he do? Rua Cummins
Significant Strikes41
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate Cummins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 55 Significant Strikes in 6:06
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rua's average takedown offense is matched by Cummins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Cummins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Patrick
Cummins
In 6:06, how much damage will he do? Cummins Rua
Significant Strikes19
Cummins's good striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 55 Significant Strikes in 6:06
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cummins's average takedown offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cummins is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cummins is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Cummins is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Cummins 8.7
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Cummins 7.9
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rua 6.5
fighter Cummins 7.3
Great submissions by Cummins
Round 1 May 18, 2013 vs Smalls
Round 1 Jan 21, 2012 vs Edwards

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rua 8.8
fighter Cummins 8.0
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rua
legend Cummins
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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