UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gustafsson vs Hamill

2,153

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Gustafsson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
81% chance Gustafsson
WILL WIN

1,906

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alexander Gustafsson
Significantly fast finishes 8.9 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly younger 31 years vs 42 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.5 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Longer reach 201 cm vs 193 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Matt Hamill
Better takedown defense 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Gustafsson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hamill’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alexander
Gustafsson
In 11:02, how much damage will he do? Gustafsson Hamill
Significant Strikes69
Gustafsson's excellent striking offense will dominate Hamill's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:02
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gustafsson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Hamill's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gustafsson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gustafsson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Hamill on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gustafsson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Hamill
In 11:02, how much damage will he do? Hamill Gustafsson
Significant Strikes52
Hamill's good striking offense may be a factor against Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:02
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Hamill's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hamill is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hamill is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hamill has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter Hamill 8.9
Great striking by Gustafsson
72 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Rua
76 strikes Apr 14, 2012 vs Silva
10 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 8.4
fighter Hamill 8.7
Great takedowns by Hamill
6 takedowns Sep 22, 2012 vs Hollett
3 takedowns Oct 23, 2010 vs Ortiz
2 takedowns Jun 19, 2010 vs Jardine

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter Hamill 7.9
Great knockouts by Gustafsson
Round 1 Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Aug 06, 2011 vs Hamill
Round 1 Nov 14, 2009 vs Hamman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 7.3
fighter Hamill 6.5
Great submissions by Gustafsson
Round 1 Feb 27, 2011 vs Te-Huna
Round 2 Oct 16, 2010 vs Diabate
Round 2 Nov 17, 2007 vs Heikkola

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gustafsson 8.9
fighter Hamill 7.9
Fast finishes by Gustafsson
133 seconds Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko
521 seconds Aug 06, 2011 vs Hamill
461 seconds Oct 16, 2010 vs Diabate
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 6, 2011UFC 133
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XDEC
1,9351,961
1,9881,907
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gustafsson
legend Hamill
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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