UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gustafsson vs Struve

2,153

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Gustafsson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
72% chance Gustafsson
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alexander Gustafsson
Much stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.3 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier hands 8.9 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Stefan Struve
Much taller 213 cm vs 193 cm More than 10% taller
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.3 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly heavier 264 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly longer reach 215 cm vs 201 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Gustafsson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Struve’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alexander
Gustafsson
In 10:37, how much damage will he do? Gustafsson Struve
Significant Strikes68
Gustafsson's excellent striking offense will dominate Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:37
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gustafsson's average takedown offense is matched by Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:37
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gustafsson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Struve on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gustafsson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stefan
Struve
In 10:37, how much damage will he do? Struve Gustafsson
Significant Strikes38
Struve's average striking offense is matched by Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:37
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Struve's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:37
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Struve has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Struve is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Struve is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter Struve 8.4
Great striking by Gustafsson
72 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Rua
76 strikes Apr 14, 2012 vs Silva
10 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 8.4
fighter Struve 7.3
Great takedowns by Gustafsson
6 takedowns Dec 08, 2012 vs Rua
1 takedown Apr 14, 2012 vs Silva
2 takedowns Oct 16, 2010 vs Diabate

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter Struve 8.1
Great knockouts by Gustafsson
Round 1 Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Aug 06, 2011 vs Hamill
Round 1 Nov 14, 2009 vs Hamman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 7.3
fighter Struve 8.0
Great submissions by Struve
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 2 Oct 01, 2011 vs Barry
Round 1 Oct 24, 2009 vs Gormley

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gustafsson 8.9
fighter Struve 8.8
Fast finishes by Gustafsson
133 seconds Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko
521 seconds Aug 06, 2011 vs Hamill
461 seconds Oct 16, 2010 vs Diabate
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gustafsson
legend Struve
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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