UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gustafsson vs Werdum

2,153

CageRank

WINNER
Werdum

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
56% chance Werdum
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fabricio Werdum
Much better submission offense 8.5 vs 7.3 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier 242 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 10.0 vs 9.5 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Alexander Gustafsson
Much heavier hands 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly younger 31 years vs 40 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 201 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.7 vs 9.5 Almost the same
Werdum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gustafsson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fabricio
Werdum
In 11:50, how much damage will he do? Werdum Gustafsson
Significant Strikes62
Werdum's excellent striking offense will dominate Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:50
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Werdum's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:50
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Werdum is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Werdum has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Werdum has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Gustafsson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Werdum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alexander
Gustafsson
In 11:50, how much damage will he do? Gustafsson Werdum
Significant Strikes50
Gustafsson's excellent striking offense is matched by Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:50
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gustafsson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:50
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gustafsson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gustafsson has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Werdum 9.1
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
Great striking by Werdum
32 strikes Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
31 strikes Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
1 strike Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.6
fighter Gustafsson 8.4
Great takedowns by Werdum
1 takedown Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
3 takedowns Nov 07, 2009 vs Silva
1 takedown May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Werdum 7.9
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
Great knockouts by Gustafsson
Round 1 Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Aug 06, 2011 vs Hamill
Round 1 Nov 14, 2009 vs Hamman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.5
fighter Gustafsson 7.3
Great submissions by Werdum
Round 2 Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
Round 1 Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko
Round 2 May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Werdum 9.0
fighter Gustafsson 8.9
Fast finishes by Werdum
461 seconds Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
148 seconds Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
69 seconds Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Werdum
legend Gustafsson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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