UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gustafsson vs Rockhold

2,153

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Gustafsson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
57% chance Gustafsson
WILL WIN

2,108

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alexander Gustafsson
Much heavier hands 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 201 cm vs 196 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Taller 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Slightly younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Luke Rockhold
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Gustafsson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rockhold’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alexander
Gustafsson
In 9:29, how much damage will he do? Gustafsson Rockhold
Significant Strikes45
Gustafsson's excellent striking offense will dominate Rockhold's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 85 Significant Strikes in 9:29
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gustafsson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rockhold's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:29
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gustafsson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rockhold on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gustafsson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Luke
Rockhold
In 9:29, how much damage will he do? Rockhold Gustafsson
Significant Strikes49
Rockhold's excellent striking offense will dominate Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 85 Significant Strikes in 9:29
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rockhold's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:29
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rockhold is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rockhold has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rockhold is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter Rockhold 9.1
Great striking by Rockhold
12 strikes Jan 15, 2014 vs Philippou
60 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Kennedy
97 strikes Sep 10, 2011 vs Souza

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 8.4
fighter Rockhold 7.4
Great takedowns by Gustafsson
6 takedowns Dec 08, 2012 vs Rua
1 takedown Apr 14, 2012 vs Silva
2 takedowns Oct 16, 2010 vs Diabate

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter Rockhold 7.9
Great knockouts by Gustafsson
Round 1 Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko
Round 2 Aug 06, 2011 vs Hamill
Round 1 Nov 14, 2009 vs Hamman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 7.3
fighter Rockhold 8.6
Great submissions by Rockhold
Round 1 Nov 06, 2009 vs Taylor
Round 1 Jun 19, 2009 vs Devela
Round 1 Nov 21, 2008 vs Theotikos

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gustafsson 8.9
fighter Rockhold 9.5
Fast finishes by Rockhold
151 seconds Jan 15, 2014 vs Philippou
266 seconds Jan 07, 2012 vs Jardine
30 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Devela
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gustafsson
legend Rockhold
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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