UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gustafsson vs McGregor

2,153

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Gustafsson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Gustafsson
WILL WIN

2,038

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alexander Gustafsson
Much taller 193 cm vs 173 cm More than 10% taller
Much better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.4 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier 205 lbs vs 155 lbs More than 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly longer reach 201 cm vs 185 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Significantly heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Gustafsson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alexander
Gustafsson
In 10:04, how much damage will he do? Gustafsson McGregor
Significant Strikes60
Gustafsson's excellent striking offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:04
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gustafsson's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:04
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gustafsson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gustafsson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gustafsson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:04, how much damage will he do? McGregor Gustafsson
Significant Strikes43
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:04
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gustafsson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:04
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Gustafsson
72 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Rua
76 strikes Apr 14, 2012 vs Silva
10 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Matyushenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 8.4
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Gustafsson 9.0
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Gustafsson 7.3
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Gustafsson
Round 1 Feb 27, 2011 vs Te-Huna
Round 2 Oct 16, 2010 vs Diabate
Round 2 Nov 17, 2007 vs Heikkola

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Gustafsson 8.9
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Gustafsson
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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