UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Stevenson

1,979

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Penn

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
81% chance Penn
WILL WIN

1,731

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.0 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Joe Stevenson
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Younger 35 years vs 38 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Stevenson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Penn Stevenson
Significant Strikes82
Penn's excellent striking offense will dominate Stevenson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Penn's average takedown offense is matched by Stevenson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Stevenson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Joe
Stevenson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Stevenson Penn
Significant Strikes60
Stevenson's average striking offense is matched by Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Stevenson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Stevenson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Stevenson is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Stevenson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Penn 9.0
fighter Stevenson 8.2
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Penn 8.1
fighter Stevenson 8.7
Great takedowns by Stevenson
2 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Fisher
8 takedowns Jun 20, 2009 vs Diaz
3 takedowns Jul 08, 2006 vs Edwards

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Penn 7.9
fighter Stevenson 7.0
Great knockouts by Penn
Round 1 Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
Round 5 Dec 12, 2009 vs Sanchez
Round 3 May 24, 2008 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Penn 8.1
fighter Stevenson 7.9
Great submissions by Penn
Round 4 Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Penn 8.3
fighter Stevenson 7.9
Fast finishes by Penn
21 seconds Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
900 seconds May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
279 seconds Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 19, 2008UFC 80
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
XDEC
1,9262,046
1,9931,979
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Penn
legend Stevenson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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