UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Florian

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
Florian

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
62% chance Florian
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Kenny Florian
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.2 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 38 years vs 41 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Florian on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kenny
Florian
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Florian Penn
Significant Strikes72
Florian's average striking offense is matched by Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Florian's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Florian is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Florian has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Florian is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Florian’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Penn Florian
Significant Strikes56
Penn's excellent striking offense is matched by Florian's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Penn's average takedown offense is matched by Florian's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Florian 8.5
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Florian 9.0
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by Florian
1 takedown Mar 31, 2010 vs Gomi
1 takedown Nov 15, 2008 vs Stevenson
5 takedowns Aug 09, 2008 vs Huerta

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Florian 7.2
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by Penn
Round 1 Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
Round 5 Dec 12, 2009 vs Sanchez
Round 3 May 24, 2008 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Florian 8.8
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Florian
Round 3 Mar 31, 2010 vs Gomi
Round 1 Nov 15, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Sep 19, 2007 vs Thomas

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Florian 8.5
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by Florian
772 seconds Mar 31, 2010 vs Gomi
243 seconds Nov 15, 2008 vs Stevenson
271 seconds Sep 19, 2007 vs Thomas
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 8, 2009UFC 101
team
VS
team
R4 SUBX
XR1 SUB
2,0292,085
2,0872,027
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Florian
legend Penn
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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