UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Sherk

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
Sherk

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
61% chance Sherk
WILL WIN

2,059

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Sean Sherk
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Much heavier hands 7.9 vs 6.7 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 38 years vs 43 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Sherk on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sean
Sherk
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sherk Penn
Significant Strikes74
Sherk's average striking offense is matched by Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sherk's excellent takedown offense is matched by Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sherk is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sherk is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sherk has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sherk’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Penn Sherk
Significant Strikes85
Penn's excellent striking offense will dominate Sherk's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Penn's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sherk's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Sherk 8.6
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Sherk 9.2
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by Sherk
5 takedowns Sep 25, 2010 vs Dunham
3 takedowns Oct 25, 2008 vs Griffin
16 takedowns Jul 07, 2007 vs Franca

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Sherk 6.7
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by Penn
Round 1 Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
Round 5 Dec 12, 2009 vs Sanchez
Round 3 May 24, 2008 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Sherk 7.9
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Penn
Round 4 Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Sherk 7.9
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by Penn
21 seconds Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
900 seconds May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
279 seconds Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 24, 2008UFC 84
team
VS
team
R3 KOX
XDEC
1,9932,100
2,0582,035
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Sherk
legend Penn
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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