UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Hughes

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
Hughes

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
54% chance Hughes
WILL WIN

2,008

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Matt Hughes
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.1 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 38 years vs 43 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Hughes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Hughes
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Hughes Penn
Significant Strikes83
Hughes's good striking offense may be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Hughes's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hughes is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hughes has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hughes is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hughes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Penn Hughes
Significant Strikes80
Penn's excellent striking offense will dominate Hughes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Penn's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Hughes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Hughes 8.8
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Hughes 8.5
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by Hughes
1 takedown Nov 19, 2005 vs Riggs
1 takedown Apr 16, 2005 vs Trigg
5 takedowns Apr 25, 2003 vs Sherk

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Hughes 7.8
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by Penn
Round 1 Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
Round 5 Dec 12, 2009 vs Sanchez
Round 3 May 24, 2008 vs Sherk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Hughes 8.2
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Hughes
Round 1 Aug 07, 2010 vs Almeida
Round 1 Nov 19, 2005 vs Riggs
Round 1 Apr 16, 2005 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Hughes 8.4
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by Hughes
195 seconds Aug 07, 2010 vs Almeida
208 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Riggs
245 seconds Apr 16, 2005 vs Trigg
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 20, 2010UFC 123
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR1 KO
2,0272,116
2,0902,054
September 23, 2006UFC 63
team
VS
team
XR3 KO
XR2 SUB
1,9002,169
1,8832,187
January 31, 2004UFC 46
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XR2 KO
1,8582,147
1,9422,063
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Hughes
legend Penn
Read More
Penn vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Hughes vs Woodley
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus