UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Machida

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
Machida

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
74% chance Machida
WILL WIN

2,164

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.5 Around 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much heavier hands 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly heavier 184 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 30% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Better takedown defense 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.8 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.5 Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Machida Penn
Significant Strikes79
Machida's good striking offense may be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Machida's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Penn Machida
Significant Strikes38
Penn's excellent striking offense is matched by Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Penn's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Machida 8.7
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Machida 8.0
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by Penn
1 takedown Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
3 takedowns Jun 23, 2007 vs Pulver
4 takedowns Oct 10, 2003 vs Gomi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Machida 8.6
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by Machida
Round 1 Oct 26, 2013 vs Munoz
Round 2 May 23, 2009 vs Evans
Round 1 Jan 31, 2009 vs Silva

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Machida 6.8
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Penn
Round 4 Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Machida 8.2
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by Penn
21 seconds Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
900 seconds May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
279 seconds Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 26, 2005K-1 - Hero's 1
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 SUBX
2,0001,762
1,9211,841
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Machida
legend Penn
Read More
Penn vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Machida vs Bisping
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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