UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Lawler

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
Lawler

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
76% chance Lawler
WILL WIN

2,180

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Robbie Lawler
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.9 vs 8.6 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 35 years vs 38 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.3 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.4 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Lawler on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Robbie
Lawler
In 12:55, how much damage will he do? Lawler Penn
Significant Strikes69
Lawler's good striking offense may be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 116 Significant Strikes in 12:55
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Lawler's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:55
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lawler has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lawler is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lawler is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lawler’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 12:55, how much damage will he do? Penn Lawler
Significant Strikes60
Penn's excellent striking offense will dominate Lawler's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 116 Significant Strikes in 12:55
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Penn's average takedown offense is matched by Lawler's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lawler 8.8
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lawler 7.4
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by Penn
1 takedown Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
3 takedowns Jun 23, 2007 vs Pulver
4 takedowns Oct 10, 2003 vs Gomi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lawler 9.3
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by Lawler
Round 1 Feb 23, 2013 vs Koscheck
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Manhoef
Round 2 Jul 23, 2005 vs Vitale

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lawler 6.3
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Penn
Round 4 Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lawler 8.8
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by Lawler
237 seconds Feb 23, 2013 vs Koscheck
213 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Manhoef
22 seconds Oct 21, 2006 vs Villasenor
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lawler
legend Penn
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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