UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Lamas

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
Lamas

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
68% chance Lamas
WILL WIN

2,112

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ricardo Lamas
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 35 years vs 38 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Slightly stronger jaw 8.6 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Lamas on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ricardo
Lamas
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lamas Penn
Significant Strikes68
Lamas's average striking offense is matched by Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lamas's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lamas is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lamas is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lamas has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lamas’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Penn Lamas
Significant Strikes72
Penn's excellent striking offense will dominate Lamas's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Penn's average takedown offense is matched by Lamas's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lamas 8.4
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lamas 8.3
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by Lamas
2 takedowns Jan 26, 2013 vs Koch
2 takedowns Nov 12, 2011 vs Swanson
4 takedowns Mar 01, 2009 vs Palaszewski

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lamas 8.0
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by Lamas
Round 2 Jan 26, 2013 vs Koch
Round 1 Jun 26, 2011 vs Grice
Round 1 Mar 06, 2010 vs Casimir

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lamas 7.4
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Penn
Round 4 Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lamas 8.1
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by Penn
21 seconds Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
900 seconds May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
279 seconds Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lamas
legend Penn
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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