UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs Diaz

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
73% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.6 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 34 years vs 38 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Significantly better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.6 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 13:05, how much damage will he do? Diaz Penn
Significant Strikes94
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 118 Significant Strikes in 13:05
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:05
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 13:05, how much damage will he do? Penn Diaz
Significant Strikes79
Penn's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 118 Significant Strikes in 13:05
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Penn's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 13:05
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by Penn
1 takedown Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
3 takedowns Jun 23, 2007 vs Pulver
4 takedowns Oct 10, 2003 vs Gomi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Penn
Round 4 Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 29, 2011UFC 137
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XR1 KO
2,1102,193
2,0722,231
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Penn
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
Diaz vs Diaz
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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