UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Penn vs McGregor

1,979

CageRank

WINNER
McGregor

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
59% chance McGregor
WILL WIN

2,038

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 28 years vs 38 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.1 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for B.J. Penn
Much better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.4 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Penn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 12:02, how much damage will he do? McGregor Penn
Significant Strikes61
McGregor's good striking offense may be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:02
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Penn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Penn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
B.J.
Penn
In 12:02, how much damage will he do? Penn McGregor
Significant Strikes70
Penn's excellent striking offense will dominate McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:02
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Penn's average takedown offense is matched by McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Penn is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Penn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Penn is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter McGregor 8.6
fighter Penn 9.0
Great striking by Penn
7 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Hughes
122 strikes May 24, 2008 vs Sherk
17 strikes Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter McGregor 8.5
fighter Penn 8.1
Great takedowns by McGregor
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Holloway

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter McGregor 9.4
fighter Penn 7.9
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter McGregor 6.5
fighter Penn 8.1
Great submissions by Penn
Round 4 Aug 08, 2009 vs Florian
Round 2 Jan 19, 2008 vs Stevenson
Round 1 Jan 31, 2004 vs Hughes

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter McGregor 9.2
fighter Penn 8.3
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend McGregor
legend Penn
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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