UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Rousey vs Aoki

2,076

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
73% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.5 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.7 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better submission offense 9.9 vs 9.3 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly longer reach 183 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 180 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% taller
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.7 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.4 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 153 lbs vs 134 lbs Around 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Ronda Rousey
Much heavier hands 7.4 vs 6.1 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.5 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.9 vs 9.4 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 30 years vs 34 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rousey’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 7:11, how much damage will he do? Aoki Rousey
Significant Strikes17
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:11
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:11
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rousey on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronda
Rousey
In 7:11, how much damage will she do? Rousey Aoki
Significant Strikes13
Rousey's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:11
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rousey's excellent takedown offense is matched by Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:11
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rousey is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rousey has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rousey is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Rousey 8.5
Great striking by Rousey
40 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
3 strikes Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
8 strikes Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Rousey 9.4
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Rousey 7.4
Great knockouts by Rousey
Round 1 Aug 01, 2015 vs Correia
Round 1 Jul 05, 2014 vs Davis
Round 1 Feb 22, 2014 vs McMann

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Rousey 9.3
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Rousey 9.9
Fast finishes by Rousey
658 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
54 seconds Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
267 seconds Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Rousey
Read More
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Aoki vs Silva
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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