UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lombard vs Leites

2,230

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Lombard

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
65% chance Lombard
WILL WIN

2,122

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Hector Lombard
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.1 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.7 vs 9.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 10.0 vs 9.7 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.4 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Advantages for Thales Leites
Much longer reach 198 cm vs 180 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Younger 35 years vs 39 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Lombard on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Leites’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Hector
Lombard
In 11:01, how much damage will he do? Lombard Leites
Significant Strikes44
Lombard's good striking offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:01
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lombard's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:01
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lombard has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lombard is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lombard is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Leites on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lombard’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thales
Leites
In 11:01, how much damage will he do? Leites Lombard
Significant Strikes35
Leites's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:01
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Leites's good takedown offense may be a factor against Lombard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:01
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Leites is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Leites has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Leites is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Lombard 8.9
fighter Leites 7.9
Great striking by Lombard
10 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
24 strikes Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Lombard 8.3
fighter Leites 9.1
Great takedowns by Leites
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Herman
5 takedowns Aug 03, 2013 vs Watson
3 takedowns Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Lombard 9.3
fighter Leites 7.1
Great knockouts by Lombard
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
Round 3 May 14, 2011 vs Vitale

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Lombard 7.4
fighter Leites 8.6
Great submissions by Leites
Round 2 Oct 29, 2010 vs Troeng
Round 1 Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen
Round 3 Jul 02, 2005 vs Machado

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Lombard 9.4
fighter Leites 8.8
Fast finishes by Lombard
108 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Marquardt
218 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Palhares
386 seconds Sep 03, 2011 vs Taylor
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Lombard
legend Leites
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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