UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Aoki

2,200

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
58% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.1 Around 40% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.0 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 183 cm vs 165 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
A lot taller 180 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% taller
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.3 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly heavier 153 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 6.1 More than 40% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.9 vs 7.4 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Slightly younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:26, how much damage will he do? Aoki Mendes
Significant Strikes13
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 76 Significant Strikes in 8:26
Poor
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aoki's excellent takedown offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:26
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 8:26, how much damage will he do? Mendes Aoki
Significant Strikes20
Mendes's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 76 Significant Strikes in 8:26
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mendes's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:26
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Mendes 8.9
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Mendes 9.0
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Mendes 8.7
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Mendes 7.2
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Round 1 Aug 26, 2006 vs Black

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Mendes 8.7
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Mendes
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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