UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Rousey

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
67% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

2,076

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 144 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Ronda Rousey
Much better submission offense 9.3 vs 7.1 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.9 vs 8.7 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly younger 30 years vs 32 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly longer reach 168 cm vs 165 cm Almost the same
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rousey’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 10:03, how much damage will he do? Mendes Rousey
Significant Strikes56
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 10:03
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Rousey's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:03
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rousey on the attack Our prediction about how she’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ronda
Rousey
In 10:03, how much damage will she do? Rousey Mendes
Significant Strikes35
Rousey's average striking offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 90 Significant Strikes in 10:03
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rousey's excellent takedown offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:03
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on her feet
If she wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rousey is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Rousey has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rousey is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Rousey 8.5
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Rousey 9.4
Great takedowns by Rousey
6 takedowns Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
1 takedown Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
3 takedowns Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Rousey 7.4
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Rousey 9.3
Great submissions by Rousey
Round 3 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
Round 1 Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
Round 1 Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Rousey 9.9
Fast finishes by Rousey
658 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Tate
54 seconds Aug 18, 2012 vs Kaufman
267 seconds Mar 03, 2012 vs Tate
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Rousey
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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