UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Alvarez

2,200

CageRank

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

2,231

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.1 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
A lot taller 178 cm vs 168 cm More than 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 10:25, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Mendes
Significant Strikes41
Alvarez's good striking offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:25
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:25
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 10:25, how much damage will he do? Mendes Alvarez
Significant Strikes53
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:25
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:25
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Mendes 8.9
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Mendes 9.0
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Mendes 8.7
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Mendes 7.2
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Mendes 8.7
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Mendes
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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