UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Guida

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
74% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

2,021

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 6.6 More than 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 31 years vs 35 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Clay Guida
Significantly longer reach 177 cm vs 165 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.1 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 170 cm vs 168 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Guida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mendes Guida
Significant Strikes67
Mendes's good striking offense is matched by Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Guida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Clay
Guida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Guida Mendes
Significant Strikes42
Guida's average striking offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Guida's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Guida is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Guida is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Guida has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Guida 8.2
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Guida 9.1
Great takedowns by Guida
3 takedowns Jan 26, 2013 vs Hioki
3 takedowns Jan 01, 2011 vs Gomi
4 takedowns Jan 31, 2009 vs Diaz

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Guida 6.6
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Guida 7.9
Great submissions by Guida
Round 2 Jan 01, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 07, 2010 vs dos Anjos
Round 2 Oct 14, 2006 vs James

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Guida 7.5
Fast finishes by Mendes
630 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
68 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
44 seconds Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 31, 2013UFC 164
team
VS
team
R3 KOX
DECX
2,1232,051
2,1632,011
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Guida
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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