UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Omigawa

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
93% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

1,737

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 6.9 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.8 vs 8.4 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.0 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly younger 31 years vs 41 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Advantages for Michihiro Omigawa
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly longer reach 173 cm vs 165 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Omigawa’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mendes Omigawa
Significant Strikes81
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against Omigawa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Mendes's good takedown offense may be a factor against Omigawa's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Poor
Scoring ability
Omigawa on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michihiro
Omigawa
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Omigawa Mendes
Significant Strikes39
Omigawa's average striking offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Omigawa's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Omigawa is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Omigawa is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Omigawa is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Omigawa 8.0
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Omigawa 8.1
Great takedowns by Mendes
7 takedowns Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
3 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
4 takedowns Feb 05, 2011 vs Omigawa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Omigawa 6.9
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Omigawa 7.0
Great submissions by Mendes
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Morrison
Round 1 Sep 26, 2008 vs Encarnacion

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Omigawa 7.3
Fast finishes by Mendes
630 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
68 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
44 seconds Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 5, 2011UFC 126
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XDEC
1,9821,989
2,0331,938
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Omigawa
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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