UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Elkins

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
77% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Darren Elkins
Much longer reach 178 cm vs 165 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much taller 178 cm vs 168 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Elkins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 10:08, how much damage will he do? Mendes Elkins
Significant Strikes51
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:08
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:08
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Elkins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Darren
Elkins
In 10:08, how much damage will he do? Elkins Mendes
Significant Strikes31
Elkins's average striking offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:08
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Elkins's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:08
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Elkins is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Elkins is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Elkins has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Elkins 8.3
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Elkins 8.4
Great takedowns by Mendes
7 takedowns Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
3 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
4 takedowns Feb 05, 2011 vs Omigawa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Elkins 7.6
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Elkins 7.1
Great submissions by Mendes
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Morrison
Round 1 Sep 26, 2008 vs Encarnacion

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Elkins 8.0
Fast finishes by Mendes
630 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
68 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
44 seconds Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 20, 2013UFC on Fox 7
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
DECX
2,0782,045
2,1231,999
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Elkins
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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