UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Dillashaw

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
77% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

1,994

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.6 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Heavier 144 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for T.J. Dillashaw
Better submission offense 7.5 vs 7.1 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Dillashaw’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 9:38, how much damage will he do? Mendes Dillashaw
Significant Strikes49
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against Dillashaw's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:38
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Dillashaw's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:38
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Dillashaw on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
T.J.
Dillashaw
In 9:38, how much damage will he do? Dillashaw Mendes
Significant Strikes38
Dillashaw's good striking offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:38
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Dillashaw's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:38
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Dillashaw has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Dillashaw is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Dillashaw is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Dillashaw 8.7
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Dillashaw 9.1
Great takedowns by Dillashaw
2 takedowns Jan 15, 2014 vs Easton
1 takedown Apr 20, 2013 vs Viana
2 takedowns Mar 16, 2013 vs Tamura

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Dillashaw 8.2
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Dillashaw 7.5
Great submissions by Dillashaw
Round 1 Jul 11, 2012 vs Lee
Round 1 Oct 02, 2010 vs Suarez
Round 1 May 22, 2010 vs Drucker

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Dillashaw 8.1
Fast finishes by Mendes
630 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
68 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
44 seconds Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Dillashaw
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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