UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Cruz

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
53% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

2,179

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission offense 7.1 vs 6.4 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Heavier 144 lbs vs 133 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Dominick Cruz
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Longer reach 173 cm vs 165 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 173 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cruz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 11:25, how much damage will he do? Mendes Cruz
Significant Strikes53
Mendes's good striking offense is matched by Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:25
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:25
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Cruz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dominick
Cruz
In 11:25, how much damage will he do? Cruz Mendes
Significant Strikes49
Cruz's good striking offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:25
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cruz's excellent takedown offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:25
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cruz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Cruz is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cruz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Cruz 8.8
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Cruz 9.4
Great takedowns by Cruz
10 takedowns Oct 01, 2011 vs Johnson
4 takedowns Jul 02, 2011 vs Faber
6 takedowns Dec 16, 2010 vs Jorgensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Cruz 7.5
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Cruz 6.4
Great submissions by Mendes
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Morrison
Round 1 Sep 26, 2008 vs Encarnacion

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Cruz 7.3
Fast finishes by Mendes
630 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
68 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
44 seconds Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Cruz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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