UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Cerrone

2,200

CageRank

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
51% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,206

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.1 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much longer reach 185 cm vs 165 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
A lot taller 183 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% taller
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Slightly younger 31 years vs 33 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 9:24, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Mendes
Significant Strikes44
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 85 Significant Strikes in 9:24
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Cerrone's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:24
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 9:24, how much damage will he do? Mendes Cerrone
Significant Strikes55
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 85 Significant Strikes in 9:24
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:24
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Mendes 8.9
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Mendes 9.0
Great takedowns by Mendes
7 takedowns Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
3 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
4 takedowns Feb 05, 2011 vs Omigawa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Mendes 8.7
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Mendes 7.2
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Mendes 8.7
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Mendes
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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