UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Lentz

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
68% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

2,069

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Much better takedown defense 9.8 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.1 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Nik Lentz
Significantly longer reach 175 cm vs 165 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 173 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 7.4 vs 7.1 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lentz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Mendes Lentz
Significant Strikes76
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Mendes's good takedown offense may be a factor against Lentz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Lentz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nik
Lentz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lentz Mendes
Significant Strikes63
Lentz's good striking offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Lentz's excellent takedown offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lentz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Lentz is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lentz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Lentz 8.8
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Lentz 9.3
Great takedowns by Lentz
4 takedowns May 18, 2013 vs Dias
10 takedowns Jan 19, 2013 vs Nunes
4 takedowns Aug 11, 2012 vs Mitsuoka

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Lentz 7.2
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Lentz 7.4
Great submissions by Lentz
Round 3 Mar 26, 2011 vs Lowe
Round 2 May 02, 2008 vs Perzynski
Round 1 Aug 02, 2007 vs Walbridge

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Lentz 7.5
Fast finishes by Mendes
630 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
68 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
44 seconds Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 14, 2013UFC on Fox 9
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 KOX
2,1632,074
2,2002,036
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Lentz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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