UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs Nurmagomedov

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
51% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Much heavier hands 8.7 vs 7.7 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Significantly better submission offense 7.8 vs 7.1 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 178 cm vs 165 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 178 cm vs 168 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 29 years vs 32 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 11:30, how much damage will he do? Mendes Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes54
Mendes's good striking offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:30
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Mendes's good takedown offense is matched by Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:30
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 11:30, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Mendes
Significant Strikes44
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:30
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:30
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
Great knockouts by Mendes
Round 3 Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
Round 1 Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
Round 1 Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
Great submissions by Nurmagomedov
Round 3 Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus
Round 1 Aug 05, 2011 vs Mamedov
Round 1 Nov 03, 2009 vs Shamhalaev

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
Fast finishes by Mendes
630 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
68 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins
44 seconds Jul 16, 2009 vs Siler
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend Nurmagomedov
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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