UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mendes vs McGregor

2,200

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Mendes

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
72% chance Mendes
WILL WIN

2,038

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chad Mendes
Much better takedown defense 9.8 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission offense 7.1 vs 6.4 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Conor McGregor
Much longer reach 185 cm vs 165 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly heavier hands 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Taller 173 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 28 years vs 31 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Mendes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McGregor’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chad
Mendes
In 10:38, how much damage will he do? Mendes McGregor
Significant Strikes60
Mendes's good striking offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:38
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Mendes's good takedown offense may be a factor against McGregor's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:38
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mendes is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mendes has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McGregor on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mendes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Conor
McGregor
In 10:38, how much damage will he do? McGregor Mendes
Significant Strikes41
McGregor's good striking offense is matched by Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:38
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McGregor's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Mendes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:38
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McGregor has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
McGregor is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McGregor is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Mendes 8.9
fighter McGregor 8.6
Great striking by Mendes
35 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
32 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
7 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Elkins

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Mendes 9.0
fighter McGregor 8.5
Great takedowns by Mendes
7 takedowns Dec 14, 2013 vs Lentz
3 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Guida
4 takedowns Feb 05, 2011 vs Omigawa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter McGregor 9.4
Great knockouts by McGregor
Round 1 Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
Round 1 Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
Round 1 Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Mendes 7.2
fighter McGregor 6.5
Great submissions by Mendes
Round 1 Apr 24, 2010 vs Morrison
Round 1 Sep 26, 2008 vs Encarnacion

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Mendes 8.7
fighter McGregor 9.2
Fast finishes by McGregor
67 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Brimage
220 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs Buchinger
93 seconds Feb 18, 2012 vs O'Keefe
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 11, 2015UFC 189
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Mendes
legend McGregor
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 25 comments.
a ungrateful little baby, people like you are people like faber and by that, I mean, when they are wrong they make up excuses like little cowards, its pathetic, I said what would happen and it happened nothing fucking less you stupid idiot
you stupid nonworthy bittch, who said mcgregor would win and who won? Bigman said it and Bigman is always right
agreed
They pretty much did protect him by giving him a guy on a two week camp. Seriously how do you go ur whole career get that far and you face one wrestler and at that a wrestler on a two week camp. I promise its only a matter of time before he gets exposed. Chad already proved hes got major holes in his grappling if you know anything about wrestling you would see it its obvious. I got aldo in their upcoming fight (the more complete fighter) but it could go either way but after that hes going to have to fight another wrester prolly either franky edgar or mendes again and i dont think hes ready for either of them on a full camp and in shape. Wouldnt surprise me win or loose vs aldo he jumps up in weight and they wont let him fight khabib he would get rag dolled and humiliated.
Reality check??????? You were so right about that fight, not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I told you what would happened and it happened, be greatful boy
When you think about it, who has mendes actually fought. He has fought one b level fighter who runs only on his energy(clay guyda) and no one else. He thought aldo, he lost. He thought aldo again, he lost again. He fights McGregor, he lost. He fights edgar, he wins but Frankie is a d level fighter who is old. He fights McGregor again, he loses. He keeps on losing fights. Hes old and done. Mendes, wrong division. Go to 135 buddy.
Mendes is no good
well yeah - he didnt exactly as aldo wont. conor WOULD fight with such a lil tiny bruise that is officially was - its not about you or me. so you had/have/will have no point at all. cya
WHO WON!!!!
Someone who is growing and throwing 3.2 million dollars down on a potential bet will not lose, you stupid mover fuckker. He is the best ever and is better then anyone in mma because he is the best and now you listen to me because you are the baby and I am your daddy so start sucking on your mommas titty. Sorry for this abruption of speaking and writing abrasively with depth but when you are that eager and ironicoly stupid in decisions then try to make people mad and disappointed is redicously and disappointing. I think that you should apologize. Scratch that, I know you best be kissing my feet and telling me that I am right because I know who is going to be the best because that is how I go, roll, and spend my dooo!!!!!! Its a respect thing, so get back on your sister computer and hop off your brothers sponge bath to wipe of your tears and your idodic behaviors to apologize to me mate. Its just a respect thing that you have to do. I was right and you were wrong. I know who will win. Its just how that is and conor is the best. I wouldn't tell you that he was the best if he wasn't and he wouldn't think he was if he wouldn't. You stupid!!!!!!! Geesseaze mate.
hmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!! Guess you were wrong buddy. Now you have to bow down like a little loser and trader that you are and kiss my feet, what did I say, ha, what did I say, I told you what was going to happen and it happened, you knew nothing and I knew what was going to happen.
Looks like he didn't need protecting after all :)
Hope you placed that bet!
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He won't get near mcgregor,I agree Connor hasn't met anyone like Chad, but he hasn't met anyone like Connor the stand up in the exchanges the different Angels he throws his punches with reach advantage he will fall,sit back and relax homie
Bigger stronger faster,he's going to fcuk him up!!!!!👊👊mcgregor will destroy this little hobbit, looking at him at the press conference chads body language is all wrong, fidgeting with his hands,I think he inn his head already!!
McGregor is going to win
He does just because he can box and hes huge for that weight. Chad does as well he just KO'd ricardo llamas whos tougher than any opponent conors had in round one and dropped aldo to the floor from strikes twice in their 2nd fight. I think someone is going to get knocked out.
Lol last time i checked being taller than someone doesnt win a fight. Ever heard of mike tyson? Tune in sat. cause ur in for a reality check bud.
Ok then why hasent conor faced another wrestler or grappeler in 7 YEARS. You realize wrestlings like the most common base in mma . I think they are protecting him because his mouth sells tickets
Nah the issue is conor STILL hasent fought another solid grappeler since the beginning of his career. He hasent proved his ground game is any better than the beginning of his career by just standing up and striking with guys. Chads the complete fighter here.
Riiiiiiight lmao another brainwashed fan of conors u realize chad just KO'd llamas in round one someone better than anyone conors ever fought? Then before that he dropped aldo from strikes twice in that fight his hands are legit and POWERFUL. You cant even spell mendes's name right shows how much you know about money mendes.
Only thing that makes me think conor has a chance at all is his boxing and that significant reach but i think mendes is the superior athlete and he will get inside. His hands are getting really good and hes got wrestling conor hasent seen anything like in his life. Conors not going to be able to go full offense like his previous fights all those crazy kicks and shit chad will catch them and put him on his ass. I got chad KO in round two. If conor wins its because hes got a good sprawl going and able to frustrate chad and make him rely on purely striking by blocking the takedown but i doubt he will. Time for conor to be humbled.
Your a fool
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