UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Brown vs Swick

2,072

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Brown

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
69% chance Brown
WILL WIN

1,931

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Matt Brown
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 36 years vs 38 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Mike Swick
Longer reach 196 cm vs 191 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better submission offense 7.0 vs 6.8 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Brown on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Swick’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Brown
In 11:33, how much damage will he do? Brown Swick
Significant Strikes65
Brown's excellent striking offense will dominate Swick's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:33
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Brown's average takedown offense is matched by Swick's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Brown has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Brown is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Brown is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Swick on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Brown’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mike
Swick
In 11:33, how much damage will he do? Swick Brown
Significant Strikes38
Swick's average striking offense won't be a factor against Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:33
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Swick's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:33
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Swick has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Swick is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Swick is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Brown 9.1
fighter Swick 8.4
Great striking by Brown
10 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Pyle
40 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Mein
25 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Brown 8.1
fighter Swick 7.8
Great takedowns by Brown
1 takedown Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick
5 takedowns Apr 21, 2012 vs Thompson
3 takedowns Jun 26, 2011 vs Howard

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Brown 9.3
fighter Swick 8.5
Great knockouts by Brown
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Pyle
Round 2 Apr 20, 2013 vs Mein
Round 2 Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Brown 6.8
fighter Swick 7.0
Great submissions by Swick
Round 1 May 27, 2006 vs Riggs
Round 1 Mar 04, 2006 vs Vigneault
Round 1 Nov 07, 1998 vs Bell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Brown 8.5
fighter Swick 8.4
Fast finishes by Brown
29 seconds Aug 17, 2013 vs Pyle
360 seconds Apr 20, 2013 vs Mein
451 seconds Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 8, 2012UFC on Fox 5
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XR2 SUB
1,8791,997
1,9451,931
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Brown
legend Swick
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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