UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Brown vs Means

2,072

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Brown

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Brown
WILL WIN

1,953

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Matt Brown
Significantly harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.9 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 6.8 vs 6.4 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Tim Means
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 8.6 vs 8.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Brown on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Means’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Brown
In 11:57, how much damage will he do? Brown Means
Significant Strikes69
Brown's excellent striking offense will dominate Means's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:57
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Brown's average takedown offense is matched by Means's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:57
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Brown has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Brown is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Brown is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Means on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Brown’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tim
Means
In 11:57, how much damage will he do? Means Brown
Significant Strikes50
Means's good striking offense is matched by Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:57
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Means's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:57
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Means has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Means is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Means is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Brown 9.1
fighter Means 8.8
Great striking by Brown
10 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Pyle
40 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Mein
25 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Brown 8.1
fighter Means 7.9
Great takedowns by Brown
1 takedown Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick
5 takedowns Apr 21, 2012 vs Thompson
3 takedowns Jun 26, 2011 vs Howard

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Brown 9.3
fighter Means 8.8
Great knockouts by Brown
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Pyle
Round 2 Apr 20, 2013 vs Mein
Round 2 Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Brown 6.8
fighter Means 6.4
Great submissions by Brown
Round 2 Nov 15, 2008 vs Thomas
Round 1 Oct 20, 2006 vs Nickoson
Round 1 May 20, 2006 vs King

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Brown 8.5
fighter Means 8.6
Fast finishes by Means
144 seconds Sep 13, 2013 vs Spratt
66 seconds Jun 08, 2012 vs Salas
600 seconds Oct 07, 2010 vs Green
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 11, 2015UFC 189
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Brown
legend Means
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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