UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Struve

1,757

CageRank

WINNER
Struve

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
79% chance Struve
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Stefan Struve
Much taller 213 cm vs 191 cm More than 10% taller
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.3 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better submission defense 8.8 vs 7.3 More than 20% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly younger 29 years vs 40 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 215 cm vs 206 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.2 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 264 lbs vs 253 lbs Around 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Lavar Johnson
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 8.5 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger takedown offense 7.5 vs 7.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Struve on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stefan
Struve
In 7:27, how much damage will he do? Struve Johnson
Significant Strikes25
Struve's average striking offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 67 Significant Strikes in 7:27
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Struve's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:27
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Struve has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Struve has a chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Struve is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Struve’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lavar
Johnson
In 7:27, how much damage will he do? Johnson Struve
Significant Strikes46
Johnson's good striking offense may be a factor against Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 67 Significant Strikes in 7:27
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Struve's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:27
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Struve 8.4
fighter Johnson 8.9
Great striking by Johnson
39 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Barry
65 strikes Jan 28, 2012 vs Beltran
26 strikes Oct 22, 2010 vs Zwicker

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Struve 8.1
fighter Johnson 8.5
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 1 May 05, 2012 vs Barry
Round 1 Jan 28, 2012 vs Beltran
Round 1 Jan 22, 2009 vs Huckaba

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Struve 8.0
fighter Johnson 6.3
Great submissions by Struve
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
Round 2 Oct 01, 2011 vs Barry
Round 1 Oct 24, 2009 vs Gormley

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Struve 8.8
fighter Johnson 8.3
Fast finishes by Struve
530 seconds Sep 29, 2012 vs Miocic
65 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Johnson
532 seconds Feb 15, 2012 vs Herman
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 26, 2012UFC 146
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR1 SUB
1,8601,976
1,8262,010
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Struve
legend Johnson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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