UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Diaz

2,023

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
55% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.6 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 193 cm vs 187 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Michael Johnson
Much better takedown defense 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 11:50, how much damage will he do? Diaz Johnson
Significant Strikes73
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:50
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:50
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Johnson
In 11:50, how much damage will he do? Johnson Diaz
Significant Strikes52
Johnson's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 106 Significant Strikes in 11:50
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:50
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Johnson 8.6
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Johnson 7.8
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis
2 takedowns Sep 16, 2009 vs Guillard
5 takedowns Sep 17, 2008 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Johnson 8.3
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
Round 2 Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
Round 1 Oct 03, 2009 vs Derrow

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Johnson 6.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Johnson 8.0
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 19, 2015UFC on Fox 17
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Johnson
Read More
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Fantasy Cage Match
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Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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