UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jones vs Rua

2,377

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
89% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much longer winning streak 14 fights vs 3 fights Around 4.8x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 8.1 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.5 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 193 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
A lot taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 30 years vs 35 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 10:44, how much damage will he do? Jones Rua
Significant Strikes57
Jones's excellent striking offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:44
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:44
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 10:44, how much damage will he do? Rua Jones
Significant Strikes43
Rua's excellent striking offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:44
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:44
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 19, 2011UFC 128
team
VS
team
R3 KOX
XR2 KO
2,0232,142
2,0892,076
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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